Tim Ballard's Instagram collaborations · a little algebra

Sun, Moon and Starlink

Every account credited alongside Ballard, sorted by one question: could it trade places with another account without anything looking different?

We took every Instagram post we've captured where Ballard shares the credit with other accounts: 492 posts, 172 accounts. The answer splits them cleanly. 73 are one of a kind, like the Sun and the Moon. 99 are interchangeable, like Starlink satellites in the same shell: swap any two and the constellation looks exactly the same. Ballard, his foundation and his own projects are the Sun and Moon. Most of the accounts credited beside him are satellites.

Ballard Foundation Ecuador tbfrescue Hidden War film Latter Day Chad
Key Ballard (on all 492 posts) named anchors: his foundation, his rescue project, his film, Latter Day Chad (size = posts) 68 other one-of-a-kind accounts an interchangeable account; a dashed ring = one batch that can be swapped freely outer ring: the 24 smaller batches (groups of 4, 3 and 2), spaced apart

The idea: orbits and fixed points

The math comes from a branch of algebra called group theory, and its key word happens to be orbit. The astronomy picture fits better than you'd expect.

Fixed point: the Sun

Something no swap can move without being noticed. There's only one Sun; swap it with anything and you'd see at once.

Orbit: a Starlink shell

A set of things that can be swapped among themselves with nothing changing. Thousands of identical satellites in one shell: swap any two and the network works the same.

The test is the name-tag test from our earlier page: if two accounts swapped name tags, would the record of who was credited with whom read any differently? If not, they're in the same orbit. SageMath, free software mathematicians use, checks every possible swap at once across a sign-in sheet of 172 accounts by 492 posts.

The Sun and the Moons: 73 fixed points

These accounts each have a pattern of credits nobody else shares. The structure depends on them.

Keybar length = posts the account is credited on, out of 492plus 68 more one-of-a-kind accounts, mostly partners, venues and media, 1 to 19 posts each

Ballard is on every post because we chose his collaborations. What matters is who else is irreplaceable: his own foundation, his own projects, and a short list of regulars, Latter Day Chad among them.

The satellites: 99 accounts in 28 batches

Every large batch is made of accounts that appear exactly once, plugged into posts with the same shape. Any of them could have filled any of those seats.

●●●●●●●●●●●●●● 14 one-off guests on 7 posts: Ballard plus two guests each
●●●●●●●●●●● 11 one-off guests on 11 posts: Ballard plus one guest each
●●●●●●●●● 9 one-off guests on 3 four-account posts
●●●●●●●● 8 on two five-account posts, including the official Sound of Freedom account
●●●● ●●●● ●●●● ●●● ●●● ●●● six small batches, 21 accounts
●● ×18 eighteen interchangeable pairs, 36 accounts
Key● = one account; each row is one or more batches whose accounts can be swapped freely

The cross-check

On our earlier page we studied just seven group posts and found a trio of accounts, H, I and J, that could be swapped freely. This time Sage got all 492 posts, with no hint, and found the same three accounts forming their own orbit. A small input and a large one, the same answer.

How many ways to swap?

3.3 × 1030

Shuffling the satellites within each batch, in every combination, gives about 3.3 × 10³⁰ rearrangements that leave everything looking the same. That's far more than the number of stars in the observable universe. The batch of 14 alone can be ordered about 87 billion ways. In plain terms: across Ballard's collaborations, an enormous number of seats could have been filled by anyone in the same batch. Only 73 accounts carry real structure.

Why this is a new kind of evidence

Online accounts usually get judged one at a time: does this one look real? This method looks at the shape of the whole network instead. It ignores what any account posts or says. It only asks who is credited with whom, then lets algebra sort the irreplaceable from the interchangeable. It joins three fields that rarely meet:

social media forensicsdesign theorygroup theory

What it shows, and what it doesn't

It showsIt doesn't show
which accounts the network depends on (73)who runs any account
which accounts are interchangeable seat-fillers (99, in 28 batches)why anyone posts
that one-off guests arrive in batches with identical slotsthat interchangeable means fake by itself
that a larger, independent run reproduces the H, I, J resultanything outside the posts we've captured

Not yet peer reviewed

Software agreeing is not the same as experts checking the reasoning. Corrections welcome.

The full mathematics: Automorphism Group of the Incidence Structure and Its Orbits. Data: our captures of Instagram's own post records, October 2026: 492 posts where Ballard shares credit with at least one other account (74 posts that only mention him were left out). Math: SageMath 10.9, automorphism group of the incidence structure and its orbits. Background: Joseph A. Gallian, Contemporary Abstract Algebra, Ch. 7. Smaller accounts are counted, not named. Earlier pages: Who went first · The Name-Tag Test. The data: docs/data/sun-moon-starlink. More pages: Backfire tracking. Compiled October 6, 2026. Corrected the same day: an earlier version said the batch of 14 sat on 5 posts with a shared partner; it is 7 posts, each Ballard plus two guests.